0 Assigned ID: 912 ----- Attempting Submission 1 (Fri Apr 07 21:25:31 GMT 2017) ----- HST Phase I Proposal 912 (hst_cycle25_theory.pdf.apt) successfully submitted. Receipt: # 912-1 ----- Attempting Submission 2 (Fri Apr 07 23:34:32 GMT 2017) ----- A new era is emerging in which we will have hundreds of progenitor masses for supernovae (SNe) and supernova remnants (SNRs); we propose to develop the statistical and theoretical tools needed to interpret this data. Two of the fundamental predictions of stellar evolution theory are that stars more massive than about 8 solar masses will explode and that some of these stars will not explode and form black holes. These statements are clear and simple, yet constraining them with observations has remained elusive until recently. For many years, the rate of progenitor discovery was steady but slow; each progenitor discovery required rare serendipitous pre-cursor imaging. With this steady drip of direct imaging, the number of progenitor masses numbered no more than 20. Recently, we developed a technique that increased the number of progenitor masses by a factor of 10 or more. In this new technique, we use HST photometry to age-date the stellar populations surrounding SNRs. From this age, we derive a progenitor mass for each SNR. We currently have progenitor masses for 115 SNRs in M31 and M33, soon we will have 300 more from M83, and there are hundreds more SNRs that could be analyzed in other nearby galaxies. To prepare for this watershed, we propose to develop the Bayesian framework needed to properly infer the progenitor mass distribution. This work will culminate in a direct constraint on the predictions of core-collapse supernova theory. Stellar Physics Stellar Populations 0 Regular false false true SUPPORTED